Monday's Money Minute Podcasts
Every Monday we will be publishing a 2 to 4 minute audio podcast about current financial issues. Click on the link for the relevant podcast to listen to the commentary.
Sunday, May 31 2009
The latest podcast has been uploaded onto the website - 3 Factor Model
Welcome to the latest edition of Monday's Money Minute. In today's edition I want to provide a quick review of the three factor model which is the approach this firm uses to assist clients structure their Australian and international share exposures.
Research published by professors Fama & French in the 1990s suggested that on top of the expected higher returns, compared to risk free assets, from investing in shares there were two other areas of the equity market that seemed to provide even slightly higher returns over the long term. Namely investing in
- small companies and
- value style companies
The key reason behind this outcome becomes clearer through an understanding of risk for investors. Investors expect higher returns for investing in riskier investments otherwise they would not bother. Investing in companies on the share market is a risky activity. Companies don't tend to smoothly grow over time and some end up failing leaving their investors with very little from an initial investment.
Therefore, to invest in companies investors need to expect to get a better return than from plonking their savings in a much more secure cash account. If you look at share market returns at the end of a really sharp fall like we have experienced to the beginning of March this year, this principle (and our definition of long term) is put to the test. However, over the very long term, most would agree with the assertion that investing in shares has provided a better outcome compared to investing in risk free assets such as cash and government bonds.
Smaller companies are riskier options compared to large well established companies and therefore investors in this area of the market expect a higher return going forward. Because they are riskier, this higher return is not always achieved. This is what makes it a risk - the lack of certainty.
Value companies, as defined in Fama & French's research as those companies where their book assets seem to have been undervalued by the market, as identified through using a Book to Market ratio, also hold more risk for an investor as compared to investing in companies the market are more positive about.
Fama & French's research suggested that investors could look to achieve 2 to 3 % better returns from investing in these small and value areas of the market.
So how have these areas performed over 2008?
For the 12 months to the end of December 2008, we saw that:
So small companies performed a lot worse and value companies slightly better.
Here, the opposite to the Australia market was experienced, value underperformed and small performed in line.
2008 clearly showed that the premiums can not be relied upon to consistently be there each and every period of time. It is all about risk and uncertainty.
So what has happened since the beginning of 2009?
2009 so far has been a much better year for the factors especially Australian small.
What about longer term results?
For the 7 years the end of April 2009:
Part of the risk/reward story in international markets I have left out until now is the Emerging Markets story. The story here is that investing in developing countries like China, India, Brazil is a riskier proposition due to a range of political and economic factors. However the expected return should also be higher but more volatile. The recent results for this area of the market have highlighted these points:
In conclusion, structuring investments to add exposure to small, value and emerging market companies is not a free ride as we saw through 2008. For those who build investment portfolios with a long term focus utilising an index style approach, the benefits will come not only from the risk story but also from diversification benefits.
If you would like to find out more about this firm's approach to structuring portfolios please take a look at our Building Portfolios page on our website or get in contact via email.
Monday, May 25 2009
The latest podcast has been uploaded onto the website - Taking Stock - What Should Investors Do Now?
In this edition of our podcasts I wanted to provide a simple update on the movement of markets so far in 2009 and then turn listeners attention to considering what their response should be to the current climate.
To the end of last week - 22nd May - we have seen the following performance in share asset classes:
· Australian shares are now up 1% for the year, up 20% since the bottom reached in early March
· Australian listed property still down 26% for the year but up 17% since the bottom.
· International listed property is also still down 19% for the year but up 16% since the bottom.
· International shares up 2.5% for the year and up over 30% since the bottom.
· Emerging Markets are now up 27% for the year so far, up 38% since early March.
As I always profess - as my family and closest friends can confirm - I have no idea whether markets will continue this projection in the short term. There is still potential for "icebergs" to create more havoc such as the downgrading of the UK's or even the US credit rating. Let's hope the global economy can avoid these icebergs but we should be prepared for this.
So What Should Investors Do Now?
For clients and regular visitors to A Clear Direction's website you will be well aware that I currently favour the use of Dimensional Fund Advisor investments within portfolios.
Last Friday, Dimensional have uploaded to their public website a really useful series of online presentations done by Weston Wellington, Vice President of Dimensional in the United States. The series is titled - What Should Investors Do Now?
The presentations are 68 minutes in total length but well worth sitting through. Weston covers Dimensional's approach to managing money under adverse business conditions, looks at how recessions affect share prices, explains why many did not see the problems in share markets coming, compares the recent downturn with previous downturns, considers whether government intervention is a threat to capitalism and concludes by suggesting what investors should do now.
Summarising the concluding comments:
These are very general rules of thumb that hold some merit. However each individual's approach will be more complex given individual circumstances, risk tolerance and goals. If you wanted to spend time discussing your individual response to the current economic and investment climate please do not hesitate to be in contact.