Skip to main content
#
A Clear Direction
rss feedour twitterour facebook page linkdin
home
Financial Advisor Brisbane - AdviserScott Keefer - A Clear DirectionBuilding Investment PortfoliosPortfolio Management ServiceUpdated ContentContact Us - Brisbane Financial Planning
A Clear Direction Financial Planning logo

 Financial Happenings Blog 
Sunday, July 06 2008

Now that the investment books for the 2007-08 financial year are closed it is worth having a look at some of the forecasts and predictions made at the beginning of the financial year to see how they turned out.  The Sunday Mail ran a piece over the weekend - "Redemption time - Stock experts shrug off a painful year of investing".

 

The article looked at the 5 stock picks made by four experts at the beginning of the 2007-08 year:

 

Tony Dennis

Tim Lincoln

Joel Palmer

Joseph Kingsley

Director, equities

ABN Amro Morgans

MD, Lincoln Intelligent Sharemarket Solutions

Principal Palmer Portfolios

Client adviser

Wilson HTM

Code

Change

Code

Change

Code

Change

Code

Change

BHP

+24.8%

BHP

+24.8%

MND

-8.2%

MQG

-42.6%

TOL

-58.2%

MND

-8.2%

WTP

-66.6%

BHP

+24.8%

ORG

+64.3%

CSL

-59.1%

SUL

-44.7%

SDM

-17.3%

DOW

-6.3%

TOX

-35.7%

MLI

-60.9%

NWS

-39.2%

MQG

-42.6%

MRM

-18.4%

MCR

-28.4%

PXS

-54.1%

Average

-3.6%

-19.32%

-41.76%

-25.68%

Out-performance

12.94%

-2.78%

-25.22%

-9.14%

 

To put these results in context, the ASX200 Index returned -16.54% over the year.  The average performance across the 4 experts was -22.59% or 6.05% below the ASX200.  Well done to Tony Dennis for beating the market but based on pure chance you would expect two of the four to have out-performed and two to have underperformed so basically the group as a whole did worse than pure chance.

 

An index fund would have to have had fees and costs of 6.05% to have matched the performance.  (Vanguard's Australian Share Index Fund has a fee of 0.75% on the first $50,000 or 0.34% for wholesale investors)

 

I know where I would have preferred to have my hard earned money invested.

 

Regards,

Scott Keefer

Posted by: Scott Keefer AT 10:00 pm   |  Permalink   |  Email
 
Scott Francis' articles in the Eureka Report 
Request for Information 
If you have questions, or would like more information, please go to our Contact page and leave your name and contact information.

Plan Well, Invest Well, Live Well! Financial advice providing a clear direction

A Clear Direction Financial Planning and Portfolio Management ABN 85 147 572 870

Level 19
10 Eagle Street
Brisbane QLD Australia
Ph: (07) 3303 0269
Email: scottk@acleardirection.com.au

Authorised Representative (398444) and Credit Representative (403292) of FYG Planners Pty Ltd AFSL/ACL 224 543.

ASIC - Financial Advisers Register

All content of this website is copyright © A Clear Direction Financial Planning Pty Ltd, 2017

FYG Planners Pty Ltd & A Clear Direction Financial Planning Privacy Policy