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Financial Happenings Blog
Tuesday, March 24 2009

A client has sent through a link to another article following up the discussion in my previouse blog - How long might a recovery take?

This article was published in the New York Times last Saturday 21st March - Lowered Expectations for the Bulls' Return

The article highlighted the risk in expecting that the equity markets will rebound to their historical highs any time soon:

"it took 7.2 years after the start of the bear market in 2000 for stocks to reach a bottom and then to climb back to the 2000 peak. After the bear started growling in 1973, it took 7.5 years to return to the high. And after the 1929 crash, equities didn't return to their previous peak for another quarter of a century."

To paint a brighter side to the analysus Dimson (author referred to in my previous blog entry) was quoted as saying:

"Here's another way to think about it: Even if it takes 10 years for the Dow to claw back to its old highs, at an annual rate of nearly 7 percent, "you would have still done very well ? certainly better than in T-bills,"

More food for thought.

Scott Keefer

Posted by: Scott Keefer AT 11:44 pm   |  Permalink   |  Email
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