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Financial Happenings Blog
Thursday, November 09 2006

I can't really get excited about the Telstra float.  Any time that you buy shares in a company, you effectively become part owner of the company.  And I can't get too excited about:

  • A company where the biggest shareholder (the Government - even after the float) is at loggerheads with the company board and management.
  • Where the ACCC stops the company soley benefiting from its own investments (ie it makes Telstra share its infrastructure with other telcos)
  • Where the recent history of the company has been declining earnings
  • You don't know the final price of the shares - that will be set after you decide to purchase
  • Commentators suggest that the final price is likely to be in the range $3.50 to $3.70 - Telstra shares were trading at $3.40 not too long ago and, even with the installment receipt and bonus share on payment of the second installment, $3.40 is looking like better value
  • The Government still owns a huge slice of the company in the 'future fund', which it may well sell off over time, and which will depress the share price when that sell off happens

So why, at the last minute yesterday, did I go online to register for Telstra shares?

As much as anything it is the lure of waiting to see the shares list, seeing what price they first traded at.......the excitement of a float really.  Which is a terrible reason to make any investment.  In the end it looks like I was too late with my payment, so I will miss out on all the excitement.

In terms of have I missed out on a great investment, my judgement is that I don't really think so.  My guess is that they will list at a bit of a premium to the price that they were issued at.  In three years time I don't think I will be looking back and kicking myself for missing the T3 float.

Posted by: Scott Francis AT 06:02 pm   |  Permalink   |  Email
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